Robust lessons about practical early warning systems

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Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs' elements, such as the sensitivity of the fore...

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(1) The author gratefully acknowledges valuable comments from five reviewers, Keith Beven, Jim Hall, Irina Krasovskaia, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, and Bellie Sivakumar. They helped the author to improve and enrich the chapter. (2) The work on this chapter was carried out within the WATCH (Water and Global Change) Integrated Project of the European Union's 6th Framework Programme. Floods are an inc...

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WG Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems aim at detecting unclassified but potentially harmful system behavior based on preliminary indications and are complementary to Intrusion Detection Systems. Both kinds of systems try to detect, identify and react before possible damage occurs and contribute to an integrated and aggregated situation report (big picture). A particular emphasis of Early Warning Systems is to ...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Policy Modeling

سال: 2006

ISSN: 0161-8938

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.10.002